Here I sit on the first weekend after Hurricane Matthew trashed Haiti and parts of Eastern Cuba, ground its way through The Bahamas, and generally … left South Florida unscathed.
Lucky for me…
So I have a story, maybe a fable, about Weather Forecasting. Just remember not to take it too literally – after all it is a FORECAST and not a CERTAINTY.
We will see if Matthew actually loops back for a second visit!
The Problem with Weather Forecasting
It was autumn, and a Native American Tribe asked their New Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was a tribal chief in a modern society, he couldn’t tell what the weather was going to be.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his Tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked ‘Is the coming winter going to be cold?’
‘It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,’ the weather man responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. ‘Is it going to be a very cold winter?’
‘Yes,’ the man at National Weather Service again replied, ‘It’s definitely going to be a very cold winter.’
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.
Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again.
‘Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?’ ‘Absolutely,’ The man replied. ‘It’s going to be one of the coldest winters ever.’
‘How can you be so sure?’ the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, ‘The Native Americans are collecting wood like crazy.’